Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 5.222272 6.170501 7.218840 8.460596 9.887899 11.473601 13.365036
2025-05-25 3.537834 4.740934 6.219962 8.157038 10.610405 13.596003 17.483820
2025-06-01 2.607546 3.896850 5.632097 8.103281 11.490351 15.922296 22.102652
2025-06-08 1.989029 3.275499 5.150273 8.019760 12.223877 18.065767 26.680401
2025-06-15 1.682761 3.012394 5.085550 8.455628 13.671110 21.279669 33.011641
2025-06-22 1.376000 2.667964 4.815357 8.507542 14.516204 23.677153 38.379676
2025-06-29 1.133537 2.370558 4.553595 8.506821 15.242258 25.927802 43.701010
2025-07-06 0.939742 2.113217 4.305349 8.472688 15.880875 28.069605 49.011451
2025-07-13 0.875933 2.090745 4.467649 9.166373 17.806313 32.435917 58.217992
2025-07-20 0.775316 1.969204 4.419602 9.461081 19.053987 35.772673 65.992463
2025-07-27 0.696559 1.876551 4.409813 9.819220 20.442177 39.451283 74.611837
2025-08-03 0.602194 1.725839 4.253664 9.862214 21.236812 42.142714 81.719391
2025-08-10 0.492196 1.513627 3.936093 9.545731 21.335161 43.648898 86.972970
2025-08-17 0.392855 1.301661 3.579453 9.092632 21.109788 44.542542 91.215053
2025-08-24 0.331231 1.174780 3.397164 8.992966 21.590095 46.804480 98.155309
2025-08-31 0.279564 1.061274 3.224834 8.887124 22.038826 49.034015 105.194362
2025-09-07 0.260293 1.042483 3.292324 9.359048 23.792384 53.992250 117.842688
2025-09-14 0.227129 0.968172 3.196442 9.413944 24.614631 57.116615 127.093217
2025-09-21 0.196812 0.893803 3.085371 9.412480 25.303869 60.014328 136.085408
2025-09-28 0.169817 0.822269 2.967722 9.374907 25.900700 62.757963 144.945407
2025-10-05 0.167303 0.844605 3.137048 10.133219 28.485923 69.962347 163.466614
2025-10-12 0.153592 0.817511 3.147876 10.455208 30.031657 75.003981 177.767036
2025-10-19 0.142661 0.798611 3.181551 10.846391 31.787844 80.633526 193.651277